Derailment Probability Analyses and Modeling of Mainline Freight Trains
نویسندگان
چکیده
We conducted statistical analyses and used modeling techniques to develop derailment probabilities for freight trains and freight cars operating on North American railroads. Knowing the expected frequency of derailment and the conditional probabilities of derailment for individual cars enables estimation of the derailment risk as it is affected by train length, operating speed, and positioning of cars in the consist. These results can be used to quantify the benefit in terms of reduced accident probability and severity of various changes in railroad operating and safety practices.
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